Final Tony Predictions: Best Direction of a Play/Musical Voter Enthusiasm Hints at Michael

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Direction of a Play

Weekly Commentary: For direction of a play, Jamie Lloyd scores voter appreciation for his bold, spare interpretation of “A Doll’s House,” and he’s the candidate that seems to have the edge with the most memorably audacious of the play revivals. But the widespread affection for “Fat Ham” includes the work of director Saheem Ali for his raucous and quietly affecting production, which many feel works even better on Broadway, in a proscenium house, than it did on a thrust stage Off Broadway. Patrick Marber, too, stakes a claim on the category for the clarity of his staging in “Leopoldstadt” and for his skillful orchestration of its massive cast.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: Jamie Lloyd, “A Doll’s House”
Could win: Saheem Ali, “Fat Ham”
Should win: Saheem Ali, “Fat Ham”
Should Have Been Nominated: LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “The Piano Lesson”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Saheem Ali, “Fat Ham”
Could win: Jamie Lloyd, “A Doll’s House”

And the Nominees Are:

  • Jamie Lloyd — “A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
  • Saheem Ali — “Fat Ham” (American Airlines Theatre)
  • Patrick Marber — “Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre)
  • Max Webster — “Life of Pi” (Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre)
  • Jo Bonney — “Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
  • Stevie Walker-Webb — “Ain’t No Mo’” (Belasco Theatre)

    • All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

    2023 Tony Predictions:
    Best Direction of a Musical

    Weekly Commentary: Both of the night’s director races have multiple candidates pulling voter enthusiasm.

    In the competition for director of a musical, a couple of names stand out. Michael Arden attracts votes for his illuminating production of “Parade,” which breathes fresh emotional life into a musical that’s become a theater-aficionado favorite since it premiered in 1998. But mentioned almost as often is Jessica Stone, the well-liked former actor returning to Broadway with her tonally delicate staging of the comedy-drama “Kimberly Akimbo.” Arden seems to have a slight lead here, but Stone could also walk away with the trophy.

    Gordon Cox’s Picks
    Will win: Michael Arden, “Parade”
    Could win: Jessica Stone, “Kimberly Akimbo”
    Should win: Michael Arden, “Parade”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Luke Sheppard, “& Juliet”

    Clayton Davis’ Picks
    Will win: Jessica Stone, “Kimberly Akimbo”
    Could win: Michael Arden, “Parade”

    Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

    The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

    And the Nominees Are:

  • Michael Arden — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
  • Jessica Stone — “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre)
  • Jack O’Brien — “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre)
  • Lear deBessonet — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)
  • Casey Nicholaw — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

    • All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

    Tony Awards Predictions Categories

    BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

    About the Tony Awards

    The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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